Nouriel Roubini, the famously glum economist who predicted the financial crisis, said that while the recession in the United States may well be over at the end of the year, another dip was still possible next year.
“I still expect that economic growth in the U.S. is going to be negative through Q4, and that we’ll see positive growth in Q1,” Roubini told Reuters in an interview on the sidelines of the Seoul Digital Forum.
“The U.S. recession is going to be U-shaped, lasting roughly 24 months,” he added. “Compared to the current consensus that says we are practically at the end of the recession … my view is: no, it’s going to last another six to nine months before it’s over.”
Roubini, who teaches at New York University and heads research firm RGE Monitor, had said on Wednesday that the end of the global recession was likely to occur at the end of the year. This spurred speculation that his outlook had grown more optimistic, a suggestion denied by him in the interview.
“Because I said the recession is going to be over by year-end, people say I am an optimist, but I’ve been saying the same thing for a while.”
“I would say compared to current consensus, I am much more bearish,” he said. “Compared to other people that say it’s going to be a doomsday, I could be considered an optimist.”
Roubini stood by a recent article in which he mentioned the possibility of a “perfect storm” in 2010.
“There is even a risk of a double dip, a W-shaped recession at the end of next year,” he said, a combination of rising oil prices, rising public debt and increases in real interest rates, rising concerns about inflation and the expiration of a number of tax cuts in the United States.
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