Moody’s estimates India’s Q1 GDP growth at 5.1% vs 4.7% last year

By PTI
27 August, 2014

Rating agency Moody’s expects the GDP to grow at 5.1 per cent in the first quarter (April-June) of current fiscal, better than 4.7 per cent clocked a year ago.

“The Indian economy likely accelerated in the second quarter of 2014. We expect GDP growth of 5.1 per cent. Most parts of the economy are improving. Capital expenditure could surprise on the upside,” Moody’s Analytics said in a report.

The Indian economy grew by 4.7 per cent in the April-June quarter last year and the growth rate was also 4.7 per cent for full 2013-14. After a gap of several years, the Indian economy grew by sub-5 per cent in 2012-13 and 2013-14.

The official data for June quarter of 2014 will be released on Friday.

“We anticipate a steady return to potential growth by 2016. India’s new Prime Minister Narendra Modi has taken office at an opportune time,” Moody’s Analytics said, adding that the economy is in the early stages of a cyclical upturn.

It said growth could lift towards 7 per cent with some modest economic reforms.

Moody’s Analytics projected that even without the government help, the economy would grow by around 5 per cent in 2014 and close to 6 per cent in 2015.

“An improving economy, coupled with Modi’s strong electoral mandate, provides an ideal platform from which to implement his agenda,” it added.

Industrial production is growing at a solid pace and should be mirrored in the cyclical upturn in GDP, it said.

Outlining the signs of economic upturn, Moody’s Analytics said exports and imports have also rebounded and business investment could surprise on the upside.

“Confidence lifted with the May election result, and production of capital goods has surged in recent months. We expect GDP growth hit 5.1 per cent in the three months to June,” it said.


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Moody’s estimates India’s Q1 GDP growth at 5.1% vs 4.7% last year

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