India inflation quickens in February on rising food prices

2 weeks ago

Indian retail price inflation picked up in February, after having cooled the previous month to its lowest in at least five years, supporting the view that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) no longer has room to ease monetary policy.

Last month, the central bank changed its monetary stance to “neutral” from “accommodative”, marking an end to a period in which it cut interest rates by a total of 175 bps from January 2015 to October 2016.

Consumer prices rose by an annual 3.65% in February compared with January’s 3.17% increase, data released by the Ministry of Statistics showed on Tuesday.

Economists surveyed by Reuters had expected prices to rise by 3.58% from a year earlier.

Wholesale prices also rose by a more-than-expected 6.55% in February year on year, compared with a 0.85% fall a year ago, driven by fuel and food prices, according to separate data released earlier by the Ministry of Commerce and Industry.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s surprise ban on high-value notes in November had hurt demand in India’s largely cash-driven economy and consumer price inflation has since been below the central bank’s target of 4%.

Annual retail food inflation rose to 2.01% last month from an upwardly revised 0.61% in January, pushed by faster increases in the prices of cereals, sugar and fruits, the data showed.

In Asia, China’s consumer inflation slowed to 0.8% in February from a year earlier, while in Indonesia retail inflation rose to 3.83%.

Analysts said the continued uptrend in prices would be difficult for the central bank to ignore, prompting it eventually to nudge policy rates higher to curb price pressures.

“We remain out on a limb in our view that the central bank will have to reverse course and begin hiking rates over the next 12 to 18 months,” said Shilan Shah, India economist at Capital Economics.

Asia’s third largest economy grew 7% in the October-December quarter and is expected to grow at 7.1% in the current fiscal year ending March.

Like this report? Sign up for our daily newsletter to get our top reports.


View Comments
Note ban woes drag retail inflation to five-year low in January

Note ban woes drag retail inflation to five-year low in January

Reuters 1 month ago
India’s inflation cooled to its lowest in at least five years in January as food prices fell following the government’s cash clampdown, but emerging price...
Inflation at 7%, hits eight-month high in October

Inflation at 7%, hits eight-month high in October

Reuters 3 years ago
India’s wholesale price index rose to an eight-month high in October, driven by costlier fuel and manufactured goods, raising the prospect of a fresh rate...
Wholesale price decline slows in May as food and fuel get dearer

Wholesale price decline slows in May as food and fuel get dearer

Ishaan Gera 2 years ago
Wholesale price of products, which has been declining compared with last year, remained soft but the pace of decline slowed last month due to higher...
No Comments

India inflation quickens in February on rising food prices

Powered by WordPress.com VIP