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The battle for India and how it will reshape the Sensex

09 July, 2012

When Indian historians look back at this decade, they will focus not on the ongoing economic slowdown but on the battle between two loose camps (with contrasting philosophies) for control of the world’s second most populous country.

In the Right corner we have politicians with a controlling mindset and they are backed by a growing number of promoters who cannot come to terms with the fact that the “under-the-table” model of doing business has become dysfunctional in India. These promoters would rather that the CAG and the CCI was neutralized as quickly as possible so that business-as-usual can resume.

In the Centre or the Left (depending on what part of the electoral cycle we are in) are a disparate group of determined individuals including seasoned civil servants in key regulatory positions, some members of the ruling party at the Centre, RTI activists and sections of the pro-Lokpal camp. The lowest common denominator for this camp is that they will not let the “old Raj” of a dozen or so promoters and an equal number of powerful politicians turn India into Russia.

Both camps are riven by disputes. Neither camp has as coherent a philosophy as I am portraying them as having. However, partly out of self-interest (i.e. money and power) and partly out of a desire to push forward a dogmatic position (a saffron tinted of view of India in the Right’s case and a strong desire to block the plutocracy in the Centre/Left’s case), each camp is taking up the cudgels as we approach the next General Election.

The next General Election will arguably be one of the most critical in recent years as for the first time Indians (especially middle class Indian) will have to choose between these two ideologies. I cannot opine here on which is the right camp to be in but if you read James Robinson and Darren Acemoglu’s “Why Nations Fail?” or if you read Pratap Bhanu Mehta in the , you will understand the economic benefits of the Centre/Left position more clearly.

In their meticulously researched book, Robinson and Acemoglu say the countries which fail to create inclusive political and social systems eventually fail to create inclusive economies. Ultimately such societies become dominated by a plutocracy and fail to generate sustained economic growth. Russia, predictably, and China, more interestingly, look poorly positioned from such a perspective.

This tussle for the reins of power in India therefore will be one which will shape the country’s economic prospects in the decade ahead. Naturally, therefore it will have a bearing on the composition of the Sensex in the next decade.

Gaurav Mehta, Ambit’s Strategist, highlights that of the 30 companies that were in the Sensex in 1992, only 12 survived in 2002 implying a 60 per cent churn ratio. In effect, the end of the “License Raj” in 1991 resulted in a number of these once formidable textile (eg. Century Spinning, Bombay Dyeing) and industrial companies (eg. Premier Autor, Hind Motors) being washed away in the 1990s. (The corresponding churn ratio for the Sensex was 53 per cent of the ten years to 2012. In more stable markets, like the US, the churn ratio is around 30 per cent. Even in other large Emerging Markets the churn ratio is not as high as it is in India.)

The changes in Indian society and politics between 2010-12 – “the end of the Old Raj” according to one of our increasingly muscular regulators – are likely to unleash churn on a similar scale over the coming ten years. We estimate that half of the current Sensex companies are likely to be out of the Sensex by 2022. As political power fragments in India and as politicians and civil servants refuse to play ball with promoters, Sensex companies whose key competitive advantage is political connectivity are likely to fall away.

However, if half of the current Sensex constituents will be out of the Sensex by 2022, where will the replacements come from? My view is that these replacements will come largely from sectors such as Auto & Auto Ancillaries, Consumer, Financials, IT, Pharma and light Industrials (basically, sectors which are able to avoid regular interface with the government in Delhi) and they will be companies whose internal cash generation will be sufficient to finance rapid rates of earnings growth. Hence companies such as Kotak, HCL Tech, Lupin, Dabur, Federal Bank, Exide and Cummins are likely to find themselves on the right side of history in the decade ahead.

(Saurabh Mukherjea is the Head of Equities at Ambit Capital. The views expressed here are his own and not Ambit Capital’s.)

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Amit . 6 years ago

Interesting point of view. However, inability of BJP to rise to the occasion does not leave Indian with much choice. It seems like Congress will likely go ahead with its lavish subsidy plans and burden corporates/middle class (pillars of modern India) to woo the farmers and weaker sections constituting majority vote bank. The clash of two wings/philosophies may lead to extended stalemate in policy making.

SK . 6 years ago

@”Both camps are riven by disputes. Neither camp has as coherent a philosophy as I am portraying them as having”

Do these camps really exist or are they mere portrayals…mere figments of imagination…?

Kudos to author’s creativity to conjure up something that may not be reality… On such unreal/fictitious/flimsy foundation, castles of all kinds may be built…and such castles may even appear quite nice. But, aren’t these mere figments of one’s imagination?

For all we know, there may be many hues that might define next elections. India, throughout its history, has been depicted to comprise myriad hues – it has been a good ecosystem where multiple hues have co-existed, albeit with some intermittent friction.

Therefore, it is quite unlikely that such polarization may define Indian polity, let alone it shaping future of economics and even more remotely guiding identification of winning companies that may rule the roost in years to come.

It is another matter that the identified companies may or may not be the winning companies; but either way, this fact will have very little to do with imaginary polarization of Indian polity.

On the contrary, is it not possible that the winning companies may play an important role in inclusion – in shaping a stronger India in years to come? Can’t the Indian companies take the lead to co-operate with politics and with society to co-create value for larger well-being? Why would it not be a good idea to have political connectivity; and to leverage such connectivity for larger well-being? By this rationale, wouldn’t companies that are capable of shaping significant outcomes in conjunction with policy makers likely to rule the roost? There are a number of companies whose raison d’etre is creating such holistic value (wherein shareholder wealth creation is a subset)…can’t these be the winning companies that may rule the roost?

The battle for India and how it will reshape the Sensex

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